Wright Is Picking The Wrong Punishment
Paul "the Punisher" Williams versus Ronald "Winky" Wright is a fight that should have a warning label attached to it stating "for 
purists only." Luckily for me, I am a boxing purist. If you are not, viewer beware. I trust that Williams and his 100 punches per round will do their part to make this fight watchable. Now will Winky? If you have seen him fight, you already know the answer (no).
I am far more confident predicting that this match will be boring than predicting its winner. But I’ll try to predict the latter, as I always do.
This will be Williams’s fourth fight since Carlos Quintana handed him his first defeat a little over a year ago. In that time, he destroyed Quintana in their rematch, little-known Andy Kolle at 160 pounds, and Verno Phillips for a junior welterweight title belt (WBO). In short, Williams appears to be peaking. Even more discouraging for his opponents, is the fact that he is sitting down on his punches more. Just ask Verno Phillips, who had never been stopped in his entire career until running into the Punisher.
Winky’s last fight was against the venerable Bernard Hopkins nearly two years ago. In that ugly affair, Hopkins did enough to keep Wright at bay, with well-timed counter-punches and strategic mauling on the inside. Hopkins showed that Winky could be troubled if he is forced to take the lead in exchanges, is matched or exceeded in physical strength, and if he’s cut. Although Wright is one of the craftiest southpaws that I have seen in recent years, I have major questions about his timing in the ring since he’s been away from the ring for so long.
Williams is clearly peaking at 27 years of age. What the 37-year old Wright has left in the tank is unknown. What is known is that he: has not fought in over two years and will probably be rusty. On the plus side, Wright is the more skilled man. His ability to block punches and out-jab his opponents is renowned. However, I think the combination of his age, ring rust and Williams’s punch output, height and reach will be too much to overcome.
Paul Williams by close, unanimous decision over Winky Wright this Saturday.
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Your prediction will probably come into fruition. However it’s not the sort of fight I’d bet on. It’s forseeable that even an older ‘Winky’ outfoxes him.
ReplyI totally agree. Winky is a live freaking dog. I don’t even know if I’d call it an upset if he were to win.
ReplyYour analysis is great. I would have to kindly disagree in your prediction though. I am a long time Winky Wright follower and I must say he has what it takes to beat Williams. The only question going in to this fight is how good is wrights conditioning after a long lay off. He is clearly the better boxer and as you can see with a perfect example Bernard Hopkins defense never decreases no matter how old you are. Wright has the ring smarts in this one and I see his defensive barrier blocking most of Williams 100 plus p/p round. Williams will get frustrated and Winky will land the harder crisper shots which might wear down Williams in route to a stoppage or ko in round 8. Welcome back Winky Wright. After clearly working on his power he will show what a bigger man in the heavier division can do.
ReplyExcellent analysis, you should get into this blogging thing. =) Maybe even do a guest prediction? Anyways, I can totally see your scenario unfolding. The thing about Williams is, I don’t see him getting frustrated, the guy throws punches whether they miss or land. I look at Winky’s fight against Sam Soliman as a key indicator. Soliman is half the fighter that Williams is, but gave Winky mucho trouble based on volume and work rate. The guess is the superior and taller Punisher gives Winky even more problems.
ReplyThanks. Yea that sounds good. Back to the fight though. Paul Williams does not utilize his jab nearly as much as he should. We both know Winky pops with that jab. Williams in his last fight agains phillips he threw over 80 percent power shots and threw about 193 jabs and landed 17. He is not going to connect power shots against winky. Not without landing jabs. Winky too good on defense.In the Trinidad fight he was only hit 58 times. Thats amazing. I feel that his defense will be too sound for Williams. What veteran or yet even a gate keeper has had even half of the defensive skills that wright has? I just feel that it is a very bad match up for Paul. They have been throwing him against nothing but come forward fighters and fighters who lack defense. He will lose his will to throw when he finds out he cant get through that tough defense and then starts getting popped with that winky straight. I see a tko/ko for Wright I wouldnt doubt it if corner throws in towel for Williams. A clinic demoralizes boxers. Especially a Winky clinic just ask Tito.
ReplyDude, you are ALMOST convincing to change my pick, but I’m going to stick with my guns. My biggest ex-factor is the activity (or lack thereof) of Wright and his time-off (which could impact his stamina). This will be fun to watch, speaking as a purist of course.
ReplyAlright Good luck with your pick. I like to watch boxing matches especially with crafty fighters. It will be a great fight. I like the Sweet Science.
ReplyJa is right.
Wright is wrong this weekend.
Awful lot of money has landed on Paul it seems…
ReplyWhat? Is this Joe agreeing with my prediction?!? Dude, you have to say I have been predicting tougher-than-usual calls recently! haha Seriosuly, I only cover the major (premium cable/PPV matches), it’s not me avoiding difficult predictions. Hey, maybe that tells us something about HBO’s matchmaking. I tend to find that SHO’s fights are more typically “toss-up” in nature.
And oh yeah, the Punisher will do his thing tonight.
ReplyWell lets see but Wright is my choice and the punisher will be punished.
ReplyThanks I agree. Wright does not have much of a chance in this one.
Can you provide more predicitions each week than just one fight. or let me know where some other good sites are for predictions of lessor knowone fights.
ReplyJeff, based on my schedule/workload, I focus on what amounts to the fight(s) of the week. However, if you are looking for more predictions resources, stay tuned in two weeks I will be launching a tool that may help you predict the outcome of fights (any fight). Do you think this is something that you would be interested in. If so, let me know.
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