Fight Insight

Earlier in the year when this fight was originally signed, my assumption was that it would easily challenge the rematches between Israel Vazquez-Rafael Marquez and Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquezfor fight of the year honors. However, as the battle for welterweight supremacy quickly approaches, I increasingly see Miguel Cotto (32-0, 26 KOs) as a strong favorite to win this fight. But it does not stop there. I even think he’s going to knock Antonio Margarito (36-5, 26 KOs) out.

Before you call me crazy, hear me out first. It all comes down to competition.  More importantly, how each man has fared against that competition to-date.

Cotto gets the "competitive" edge in my book. He owns dominant wins over "then undefeated" contenders like the fleet-footed Paul Malignaggi (21-0),  the power-punching Ricardo Torres (28-0), and the slick-boxing Carlos Quintana (28-0). These wins were followed by defining victories against a couple of "A-list" fighters - "Super" Zab Judah and "Sugar" Shane Mosley. 

Margarito’s resume is nothing to toss into the trash heap, but it simply does not match Cotto’s. Sure, he’s handed powerful Kermit "the Killer" Cintron his only two losses, and he made Andrew "Six Heads" Lewis see seven heads when they fought several years ago.  However, I consider those two guys to be "B-list" fighters. When Margarito has stepped up in class, he has had very mixed results. He lost decisions (albeit close ones) to current welterweight and super welterweight titlists Paul "the Punisher" Williams and Daniel Santos, respectively. But, I can live with those losses.

The one fight that stands out to me is the Joshua Clottey fight.  Although Margarito won, that fight gives me a glimpse of how he will be troubled greatly by Cotto.  Like Cotto, Clottey is a well-schooled boxer-puncher, with unusual physical strength at this weight.  He has a tighter defense than Cotto, but he is not as dynamic of an offensive fighter. Even so, he was able to land power shots at will against Margarito before suffering an apparent hand injury in the middle of the fight.

Margarito showed a lot of mental fortitude in weathering the early Clottey onslaught, but will not be as lucky when he meets Miguel Cotto in two weeks.  If Clottey had Margarito swimming in deep water, look for Cotto to catch him with hooks and reel him in.  As a matter of fact, expect the hooks to come from the left.  After that, it will be over.

Miguel Cotto TKO 10 Antonio Margarito

I really only have one question about this heavyweight title fight.  Which Wladimir Klitschko (50-3, 44 KO) will show up? Will it be the passive Klitschko, who pawed his way to a sleep-inducing win against over-matched Sultan Ibragimov (22-1, 17 KO)? Or will it be the cold and calculated destroyer who beat the snot out of the game Lamon Brewster (33-3, 29 KO) last summer? Either version of Klitschko will emerge victorious, but which one shows up will go a long way in solidifying his claim as the baddest man on the planet or establishing him as the biggest paper tiger in captivity.

For the record, Tony "the Tiger" Thompson is no cartoon mascot.  He is a legitimate contender.  Although his "hit list" is no murderer’s row, his solid resume includes clear-cut decision wins over former prospect Dominick Guinn (28-6) and the slick Timor Ibragimov (22-2).  He also owns a knockout of Luan Krasniqi (30-3) - ironically, in the same arena where he will be facing Wladimir Klitschko (Color Line Arena in Hamburg, Germany).

Thompson’s problem in this fight will not be the fight venue though.  He’s simply fighting a man with more big-fight experience, speed, and power.  To add insult to injury, Klitschko is one of the only fighters who is actually taller than him (6′7" to 6′5").  Looks like a Klitschko landslide, right? Well, it depends on which Klitschko shows up. If Doctor Steelhammer is toting aluminum this Saturday, he’ll be in for a fight.  If he’s toting the heavy metal, Thompson does not survive six rounds.  My guess is that the result will be somewhere in between.

The outcome: Klitschko by late TKO over Thompson.

On September 8, 2007, Kendall "Rated R" Holt (23-2, 12 KOs) lost by technical knockout to Ricardo Torres (32-1, 28 KOs) in Barranquilla, Colombia for the WBO welterweight belt.  Barranquilla is a Caribbean port city with a storied tradition, tracing its origin back to 1629.  By the 1940s, the city declined due to widespread corruption. If you watch the 11th round of their first fight, you may wonder if that kind of corruption still exists.  I have seen worse fight stoppages, but considering the venue (Torres’s home country), the fact that the fight was close (Torres was losing on two judge’s scorecards heading into the 11th round), and that referee Geno Rodriguez did not seem impartial for most of the fight, the end of the fight wreaks of foul play.

Despite what I saw as foul play by the referee, Torres deserves a measure of credit for the ultimate outcome. He kept at Holt all night long despite being out-boxed for most rounds.  He was ultimately rewarded for his determination, courtesy of a beautiful counter left-hook that slumped Holt into the ropes in round 11.  After that knockdown, I thought the "R" in Holt’s nickname stood for running.  Because that is what he did up until the controversial stoppage a few seconds later.

Before he put on his running shoes, Holt was using his superior boxing skills and ring generalship to out-box the hard-hitting Torres.  I see no reason why that trend will not continue when they meet on Saturday.  The change of scenery, from Barranquilla, Colombia to Las Vegas, Nevada surely shouldn’t hurt Holt’s chances, but you didn’t hear that from me.  I am still a little shell-shocked since I incorrectly predicted that Arthur Abraham would lose to Edison Miranda in their rematch largely due to the fight location.  I’ll soon get over that, just not yet.

Kendall Holt UD 12 Ricardo Torres.

When you read my post headline, you probably assume that its simply a showcase fight for the Pac-Man (46-3-2, 35 KO) to pick up an easy lightweight title belt.  However, I know better. And so should you. 

If you are wondering why you should know better, I’ll let you in on a little secret.  David Diaz (34-1-1, 17 KO) is not that bad. In fact, he’s pretty decent.  In 1996, Diaz defeated Zab Judah twice to make the Olympic team. He compiled a gaudy amateur record of 160-16, including four Chicago Golden Gloves championships and three National Golden Gloves titles.  You’re probably wondering why it has taken Diaz so long to get a big fight prior to this. 

To answer that question, I’ll let you in on another secret. Diaz is not that good either. Not to knock the guy, who has had his share of personal struggles (family death and illness) outside of the ring, but most of his career has been littered with easy opponents and unimpressive victories.  His modest 47% KO percentage illustrates that.

When David Diaz steps into the ring against the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world in Manny Pacquiao, he’ll be facing the best opponent that he has faced in the ring since he met Zab Judah twelve years ago as an amateur.  The good news is that he knows what it takes to beat a hyper-kinetic, power-punching southpaw (Judah).  The bad news is that he beat Judah at the tender age of 20, nearly 12 years ago.

Why have I said so little about Manny Pacquiao? His actions, speak louder than anything I can say.  What he brings to the table is not in question; Diaz’s credentials are.  Despite the natural size advantage, I feel that Diaz comes up short in most categories that matter (competition, conditioning, hand speed and power).  Boxing lore states that a good big man always beats a good little man.  I tend to agree.  But therein lies the problem for Diaz.  He is decent, not good, and that will make all the difference Saturday night (Pacquiao UD12 Diaz).

It is often said that when people are faced with a difficult choice, they draw upon prior experiences. In order to predict the outcome of this fight, I am doing just that.  I will admit that this pick is not an easy one - Edison Miranda lost the first bout with Arthur Abraham, and I usually do not like the loser’s chances in the rematch.  However, there are a few key factors that I think will tip the scale in Miranda’s favor. 

If Arthur Abraham reads this post, he’d probably tell me to pick him based on prior experiences in the ring  (he beat Miranda nearly two years ago). I’d respond by telling him that he had more advantages then, than he will have on Saturday, June 21, 2008. 

When they first met back on September 23, 2006, Abraham had clearly fought superior competition leading up to their first fight.  He had defeated previously-unbeaten middleweight contender Kingsley Ikeke and junior middleweight titlist Kofi Jantuah while Miranda’s best win to-date was against a "past-prime" Howard Eastman.  

Abraham also seemed to benefit from a serious dose of "home cooking." In a fight filled with low blows, clinches and foul play by both fighters, Miranda appeared to be singled out (losing a staggering five points on the scorecards for his fouls).  I will not say the ref was cheating per se, but I’d be a fool to think that he was not influenced by Abraham’s boisterous fans in Hessen, Germany.

A lot has changed since the first fight, namely the fight venue (from Hessen, Germany to Hollywood, Florida) and Miranda’s level of competition (he’s beaten the highly-respected Allan Green and lost an exciting fight to middleweight king Kelly Pavlik) since their first fight. These changes will be the difference on Saturday, producing a rousing knockout win for Edison Miranda.

What do you think will happen?