Fight Insight

When you read my post headline, you probably assume that its simply a showcase fight for the Pac-Man (46-3-2, 35 KO) to pick up an easy lightweight title belt.  However, I know better. And so should you. 

If you are wondering why you should know better, I’ll let you in on a little secret.  David Diaz (34-1-1, 17 KO) is not that bad. In fact, he’s pretty decent.  In 1996, Diaz defeated Zab Judah twice to make the Olympic team. He compiled a gaudy amateur record of 160-16, including four Chicago Golden Gloves championships and three National Golden Gloves titles.  You’re probably wondering why it has taken Diaz so long to get a big fight prior to this. 

To answer that question, I’ll let you in on another secret. Diaz is not that good either. Not to knock the guy, who has had his share of personal struggles (family death and illness) outside of the ring, but most of his career has been littered with easy opponents and unimpressive victories.  His modest 47% KO percentage illustrates that.

When David Diaz steps into the ring against the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world in Manny Pacquiao, he’ll be facing the best opponent that he has faced in the ring since he met Zab Judah twelve years ago as an amateur.  The good news is that he knows what it takes to beat a hyper-kinetic, power-punching southpaw (Judah).  The bad news is that he beat Judah at the tender age of 20, nearly 12 years ago.

Why have I said so little about Manny Pacquiao? His actions, speak louder than anything I can say.  What he brings to the table is not in question; Diaz’s credentials are.  Despite the natural size advantage, I feel that Diaz comes up short in most categories that matter (competition, conditioning, hand speed and power).  Boxing lore states that a good big man always beats a good little man.  I tend to agree.  But therein lies the problem for Diaz.  He is decent, not good, and that will make all the difference Saturday night (Pacquiao UD12 Diaz).

It is often said that when people are faced with a difficult choice, they draw upon prior experiences. In order to predict the outcome of this fight, I am doing just that.  I will admit that this pick is not an easy one - Edison Miranda lost the first bout with Arthur Abraham, and I usually do not like the loser’s chances in the rematch.  However, there are a few key factors that I think will tip the scale in Miranda’s favor. 

If Arthur Abraham reads this post, he’d probably tell me to pick him based on prior experiences in the ring  (he beat Miranda nearly two years ago). I’d respond by telling him that he had more advantages then, than he will have on Saturday, June 21, 2008. 

When they first met back on September 23, 2006, Abraham had clearly fought superior competition leading up to their first fight.  He had defeated previously-unbeaten middleweight contender Kingsley Ikeke and junior middleweight titlist Kofi Jantuah while Miranda’s best win to-date was against a "past-prime" Howard Eastman.  

Abraham also seemed to benefit from a serious dose of "home cooking." In a fight filled with low blows, clinches and foul play by both fighters, Miranda appeared to be singled out (losing a staggering five points on the scorecards for his fouls).  I will not say the ref was cheating per se, but I’d be a fool to think that he was not influenced by Abraham’s boisterous fans in Hessen, Germany.

A lot has changed since the first fight, namely the fight venue (from Hessen, Germany to Hollywood, Florida) and Miranda’s level of competition (he’s beaten the highly-respected Allan Green and lost an exciting fight to middleweight king Kelly Pavlik) since their first fight. These changes will be the difference on Saturday, producing a rousing knockout win for Edison Miranda.

What do you think will happen?

I had to go to Wikipedia to check out Gary Lockett’s (30-1, 21 KOs) "boxing resume" to see if he was a worthy opponent for Kelly Pavlik (33-0, 29 KOs). I felt like a headhunter using MySpace as a job recruiting site. I saw a lot of interesting names like Kai Kauramaki (13-13), Ayitey Powers (11-4-1) and Victor Kpadenue (6-4), but very little substance.

By comparison, Kelly Pavlik is coming off two exciting wins over former middleweight chamption Jermain Taylor (27-2-1) in his last two fights. Pointing out that he also owns a knockout victory over Edison Miranda (30-2) is unnecessary. It’s obvious: Pavlik is the better fighter and has fought the better competition.

What do Kai Kauamaki (Lockett’s most recent opponent) and Jermain Taylor (Pavlik’s most recent opponent) have in common? Nothing. Therein lies the problem for Lockett. As a result, expect him to be counted out within three rounds this Saturday.

Make no mistake about it, I am not as comfortable as I would like to be with this fight prediction. Picking against Bernard Hopkins (48-4-, 32 KOs) is like picking against Tom Brady in the fourth quarter - you just feel he’s going to find a way to win. However, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let my feelings take over my insight. My mind tells me that Joe Calzaghe (44-0, 32 KOs) gets a "check" in just about every category that matters, except one. The one area that Hopkins has an advantage in is his unrivaled ring smarts - and it is his only hope in this fight. What’s between Bernard’s ears can potentially negate all of Calzaghe’s strengths in speed, natural size, and footwork. Anyone that remembers Hopkins’s dominant wins over the favored Felix Trinidad (TKO 12) and Antonio Tarver (UD 12) need not be reminded.  Trust me, I remember.

I’ve had a busy week so far, so I will keep it short. In his first visit to the United States for a fight, Joe Calzaghe will experience some butterflies early on.  But I expect him to find his rhythm by about round five.  From this point on, he will display too much hand speed, combination punching, and fancy footwork for the 43-year old light heavyweight champion, at this advanced stage of his career. In the pre-fight hype Bernard Hopkins ranted that he would never let a white boy beat him. Let’s just say I hope that ring announcer Larry Merchant raises the issue in the post-fight interview.

JOE CALZAGHE BY UNANIMOUS DECION OVER BERNARD HOPKINS

Two days ago I mentioned that Miguel Cotto (31-0, 25 KO’s) would beat the crap out of Alfonso Gomez (18-3, 8 KO’s) in my Tarver vs Woods; Dawson vs Johnson post.  The reason is simple.  Cotto is the superior fighter.  Need I say more? I really don’t need to, but I will share my sterling insight nonetheless. 

At 27 years of age, Miguel Cotto is in his physical prime and clicking on all cylinders.  He’s coming off the biggest win of his career, an exciting decision over "Sugar" Shane Mosley last November.  Prior to that, Cotto handed "Super" Zab Judah the worst beating of his career.  And two fights before the Judah victory, he forced Carlos Quintana to quit in five rounds.  The Quintana win is especially impressive when you consider that Quintana went on to easily defeat the highly-touted Paul "The Punisher" Williams earlier this year.  What do these victories mean for Cotto’s fight with Gomez? They show that he is not only the better fighter, but has fought and defeated far better competition. 

Alfonso Gomez is coming off of two nice victories.  However, a win over a past-prime Ben Tackie (UD 10) and a blood-letting of shop-worn Arturo Gatti (TKO 7) are not enough to pass the "Cotto test."  Look for the faster and stronger Cotto to win by stoppage within eight rounds.

I have said it once before, and I will say it again: rarely will you see the loser (of the first fight) win the rematch, especially if that fighter was defeated convincingly.  When you get dominated (L TKO 5) the way that Kermit "The Killer" Cintron (29-1, 27 KO’s) was three years ago against Antonio Margarito (35-5, 25 KO’s), I just have a hard time seeing him turn the tables this time around.  Sorry, I am not overly impressed by Cintron’s blowout win over Walter Matthysse, nor his recent KO victory over Jesse Feliciano.  Cintron has registered five knockouts and has had Hall of Fame trainer Emmanuel Steward in his corner since the destruction at the hands of Margarito in 2005.  However, history will pretty much repeat itself in the rematch on Saturday. 

My prediction: Margarito TKO 8 Kermit Cintron