Fight Insight

To all "King" Arthur Abraham (27-0, 22 KOs), fans, I extend a heartfelt apology for predicting that he would lose to Edison "Pantera" Miranda (30-3, 26 KOs). It was obvious after round one, that Abraham was superior in terms of defense and ring generalship.  Damn was I wrong.

OK, enough of me beating myself up about my rare, incorrect fight prediction. Let’s talk about how Abraham beat up Miranda.

Miranda actually started off pretty well. On my unofficial scorecard, I had him winning the first three rounds. However, the entire time, Abraham was the epitome of calm; on the surface, it appeared too calm. Little did I know that he was simply sticking to his game-plan of playing counter-puncher and conserving energy in the early rounds.

Perhaps earlier than planned (the fourth round to be exact), Abraham planted the hyper-aggressive Miranda on the seat of his pants with two vicious counter-punches. Two knockdowns later, King Abraham had beaten Miranda again, embarrassing the cocky brawler in front of the partisan crowd in Hollywood, Florida.

What did I learn? One, that boxing skills and defense trump competition and "home ring" advantage, all things being equal. And two, that I need to revise my Boxing Predictions Made Easy post and rank the criteria I have laid out!

If you believed that Carlos "El Indio" Quintana’s first victory over Paul "the Punisher" Williams was a fluke, then their fight this past Saturday proved it. Like their first encounter, this fight started fast, with both fighters trading shots in the center of the ring. However, two things were very different this time around. Quintana, 25-2, 19 KOs, was far more aggressive and Williams, 34-1, 25 KOs, was far more pointed in his attack. The results were disastrous for Quintana.

After a razor-sharp straight left hand dazed El Indio at the midway point of round one, the Punisher closed the show. He swarmed and peppered Quintana with straight, short punches until the end of the fight at 2:15 of the first round, regaining his WBO welterweight title in surprisingly easy fashion. The only blemish on Williams’s performance was that he was dropped at the end of the first round. Let me stop. He was actually tackled by the "punch-drunken" Quintana, who fell face-first, grabbing Williams legs and tripping him on his way to the canvas for the second time in the fight.

One of Williams’s handlers can be overheard saying, "What’s up Cotto?" during the post-fight interview. Cotto’s response would go something like this: "I’m just chilling in Puerto Rico - training for my title defense next month against the overrated Antonio Margarito.  After that, I’m looking to fight Oscar De La Hoya for mucho dinero next year." What’s missing from this reply? The name Paul Williams.  If he continues to fight like he did this past weekend, do not look to see Paul Williams’s name next to Cotto’s on a fight poster anytime soon.

The welterweight division is currently the best division in boxing by far. Miguel Cotto, Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito, and Shane Mosley are the division’s elite while Zab Judah, Joshua Clottey, and Luis Collazo are its formidable gatekeepers. Forgive me if I forgot to mention Floyd Mayweather, Jr. For those of you who reside on Mars, he’s a boxing retiree. For those of you who reside on earth, he’s taking a break and waiting to fight the winner of Cotto/Margarito vs Oscar De La Hoya. By the way, I’m an earthling.

On April 15, I told you to expect Joe Calzaghe to outwork Bernard Hopkins.  The only thing that stopped my prediction from being 100% correct was the judge who scored the bout 114-113 in favor of Hopkins, making it a split decision win for Calzaghe, instead of the unanimous decision that I predicted.  However, by no means was it an easy win for the "Pride of Wales."  Has anything ever been easy when Hopkins is involved?  From fight purse negotiations to exchanges inside and outside of the ring, Hopkins is always difficult to deal with.

The difficult Hopkins let Calzaghe know immediately, courtesy of a well-timed counter right hand that led to the fight’s only knockdown, that his first visit to the United States was not going to be a walk in the park.  In fact, it appeared that Hopkins was going to walk through him. I was thinking, "here we go again," as Hopkins appeared to be forcing Calzaghe to follow him around the ring, throw fewer punches than usual, and leave himself exposed for right hands, like so many of his victims in the past.

Was it jitters from fighting in the U.S. for the first time or was it simply that Hopkins was more savvy in the ring than Yoda in a light-saber battle?  Whatever it was, Calzaghe ultimately overcame it. Midway through the fight he slowly gained control.  He simply wouldn’t let the fading Hopkins rest.  He overwhelmed the older man by simply throwing more punches. 

Although they often lacked power, Calzaghe’s quick combinations served two purposes.  One, they showed the ringside judges that he was the fresher fighter.  Two, they kept Hopkins in a defensive shell.  In a final act of desperation, Hopkins appeared to milk an unintentional low blow that Calzaghe landed in the tenth round in an attempt to entice the ref to deduct a point from Calzaghe.  Veteran referee Joe Cortez would have none of it. Two rounds later Cortez would be raising Calzaghe’s hand in victory.

Now that he is the Ring light heavyweight champion of the world, do not expect Joe Calzaghe to move back down to super middleweight to defend his 168-pound title.  Expect him to seek greener pasture$ against another past-prime superstar, Roy Jones, Jr.  Is this the best possible match at 175 pounds? It is absolutely not. But it will likely take place this fall, and I will watch.  What’s next for Bernard "the Executioner" Hopkins? The future Hall of Famer can retire and focus on his Golden Boy East promotional responsibilities, or he can chase a few more paydays against the likes of Glen Johnson, Chad Dawson or Antonio Tarver.  One thing he surely won’t be doing, is boasting that he will never lose to a white boy.

The last post I gave you ten reasons why Manny Pacquiao (46-3-2, 35 KOs) would defeat Juan Manuel Marquez (48-4-1, 35 KOs). In this post, I will give you two reasons why he did. Before I do, I must say that any fight including a Marquez brother (Rafael being the other) or Manny Pacquiao is likely to be a candidate for the fight of the year. Last night’s back-and-forth action was not surprising. The fact that the rematch between these two warriors somehow  exceeded their 2004 fight is the shocker. Hats off to both men for making my $49.95 pay-per-view investment worthwhile.

The Two Reasons Why Manny Pacquiao Defeated Juan Manuel Marquez

ROUND THREE.   Marquez is the aggressor for most of the round and is probably winning it. Marquez throws a right hand and misses.  Pacquiao lunges forward with a pawing right jab-hook and follows with a short, vicious left hand.  Down goes Marquez in a heap.  At the time, I was thinking the fight would end right there.  Little did I know that the fight would go the distance and this knockdown would decide the outcome of the match.  What a difference one round makes. 

PACQUIAO’S CUTMAN.  After the violent exchanges and accidental headbutts that both men endured over the first two-thirds of the fight, both had to deal with serious cuts over their right eyes.  I guess that neither fighter had an advantage then? Wrong!  Pac-Man’s corner worked magic in halting the flow of blood after round eight, while Marquez was a bloody mess for most of the fight.  Blood loss and decision losses often go hand in hand.

I usually close with a "what’s next for each fighter" summary. After this one, I will not. Let’s simply let the fight marinate, appreciate Juan Manuel Marquez’s heart in coming back valiantly from a vicious knockdown (again), and tip our hats to Manny Pacquiao. To paraphrase the Greatest, Muhammad Ali, Pac-Man is a bad, bad man.

Before I bask in the glory of my latest successful big fight prediction, Samuel Peter knocking out Oleg Maskaev inside of eight rounds, I am obliged to discuss the undercard first. Nate Campbell’s (32-5, 25 KOs) bloody, hard-fought decision victory over Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz (33-1, 17 KOs) was the fight of the night. After several years of coming close to major title fights at 130 and 135 pounds, Campbell can finally exhale.

The man also known as the Galaxxy Warrior jumped on the Baby Bull early and forced a hellish pace. It was exciting to watch, but I wondered how long it would be exciting, as Diaz lives for this high-output style and Campbell isn’t exactly what you would call a spring chicken at 36 years of age.

Nonetheless, Campbell stayed true to his game plan throughout the fight and somehow threw more punches than the punching machine Diaz. Sure, he was aided by an unintentional head butt that drew first blood on the Baby Bull. But the story was simple: Campbell turned back the clock and outworked the younger Diaz on this night. It was hard to see any of these guys lose, because they both epitomize what it means to be hard-working, consummate professionals in the ring. In the end, the better man (Campbell) won.

Samuel Peter proved me right. His power was ultimately too much for Maskaev to handle. I will admit that I got the knockout punch wrong (a right hand, rather than a left hook did most of the damage) but the fight played out pretty much as I had envisioned. Peter showed improved defense, took a few very good punches, and Maskaev, as per usual, was betrayed by his chin in the end.

What’s next for Peter? I prefer a matchup with the best heavyweight in the world, Wladimir Klitschko, for the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world. However, a matchup with Wladimir’s older brother Vitali Klitschko appears to be in the cards. The reasons are due to what I coin "alphabelt poli-tricks." This phenomenon robs the fans, but lines the pockets of the sanctioning bodies.

On a night that provided a great fight in the lightweight division (Nate Campbell’s upset win) and some clarity in the heavyweight ranks as well (Peter’s knockout), the notion of Samuel Peter fighting Vitali Klitschko was the perfect killjoy. Well, that’s boxing for you, but I still love it.  And no, I am not crazy!