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Amir Khan (26-1, 18 KO’s) vs. Lamont Peterson (29-1, 15 KO’s) is a fight where you clearly have to favor Khan, but Peterson’s boxing skills, toughness and the fact that he’s fighting in his hometown of Washington, D.C. can not be whisked away.

1. Both men have shown that they can be dropped, so their chins are a push.
2. The hand speed is close but I’d give Khan the slight edge here.
3. Ring generalship is an advantage for Khan because of his ability to revert to boxing behind his considerable jab when needed.
4. Khan’s three best opponents were Marcos Maidana, Zab Judah and Paulie Malignaggi. Peterson’s were Timothy Bradley, Victor Oritz and Victor Manuel Cayo. I think Peterson’s opponents are slightly better, especially because his top opponents were younger and in their prime.
5. Khan is clearly the more powerful puncher.
6. It’s hard for me to discern which fighter is better conditioned. They both have shown an ability to recover after being badly hurt (Khan against Maidana and Peterson against Ortiz). I’ll call the conditioning even.
7. Both fighters are more boxer-puncher, stylistically, rather than slick movers. However, I think Khan has better wheels.
8. Khan (5’10") and Peterson (5’9") are solidly-built, relatively tall junior welterweights. Khan seems to be the naturally stronger fighter however.
9. Is it just me, or does it seem that Peterson tends to get hit a lot? His defense leaves something to be desired.
10. Peterson’s major advantage will be the hometown crowd, which will buoy his fighting spirit and shouldn’t hurt on the scorecards, should fight go the distance.

I have six factors in Khan’s favor, two in Peterson’s and two seemingly even.

This will all add up to a reasonably competitive, but clear victory (via late stoppage) by Amir Khan in a week.

Before Miguel Cotto (36-2, 29 KO’s) met Antonio Margarito (38-7, 27 KO’s) over three years ago in their first bout, I incorrectly predicted that Cotto would defeat Margarito easier than expected.

However, I feel that my original prediction may have been correct were it not for the “helping hands” that plaster of Paris provided for Margarito.

I have no hard (no pun intended) evidence of foul play before Cotto-Margarito I, but it’s hard not to ask, “what if?”

But that was then, and this is now.

And now, nothing about my prediction has changed much.

The combination of age (which often leads to more exchanges and less movement), ring wear (which often leads to more susceptibility to cuts and to being hurt), and high stakes (which could lead to a superfight with Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao next year) make this fight desirable to watch.

Is it “must-see-TV?” It’s probably not. But it has all of the makings of a “blood-and-guts” grudge match between two fighters who clearly do not like each other for obvious reasons.

When it’s all said and done, look for a slightly fresher Cotto to out-punch and out-box the plodding Margarito over twelve bloody, dominant rounds.

Bonus Prediction: Abner Mares vs Joseph Agbeko II.

The link above actually points to my Mares-Agbeko I prediction that was proven wrong. But similar to Cotto-Margarito I, it was not without controversy. But unlike Cotto-Margarito I, this controversy was proven and not speculative.

Agbeko appeared to lose mainly because Mares not only got away with repeated low blows, but was actually rewarded for landing one key one (a heinous, fight-altering low blow in the 11th round that was incorrectly ruled a knockdown).

As in their first bout, Mares will likely be buoyed by a partisan crowd in California next Saturday. However, I expect Agbeko to fight even better, similar to his dominant rematch victory over Yonnhy Perez.

And as is often the case in rematches where it was perceived that the loser of the first bout was wronged (see Lennox Lewis vs Evander Holyfield II), Agbeko may get favorable treatment by the referee and/or judges in this fight.

As I did then, I predict that Agbeko will garner a close win. Only this time, he’ll get the “official” victory on the scorecards.

A little over a year ago, when it was apparent that a Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao fight was not in the offing, I suggested that Pac Man fight Juan Manuel Marquez for a third time.

My wish has come true.

Better later than never, right?

Well, not exactly, as I feel this fight is taking place about two or three years later than it should have. But I’m not going to complain. Based on their contrasting styles (Pacquiao as the puncher and Marquez as the counter-puncher), they have made for some scintillating fights.

Unfortunately for Marquez, I do not believe the third, and likely, final installment of this rivalry will be as close as its predecessors.

Here are the five reasons why I think Manny Pacquiao will be raising his left hand in victory next Saturday.

1. (Hand) speed skills. And Pacquiao has a considerable advantage here.
2. Punching power concusses. Marquez already knows this.
3. Good chins win. Pac Man’s ability to withstand Marquez’s punches have been the difference in their past fights.
4. Great footwork preserves. Manny’s better "legs" will serve him well against the seemingly more shopworn Marquez.
5. The strong survive. Way back when they fought at featherweight, Pacquiao was stronger. The gap is even wider now.

Since I focus on five factors above, I predict that this fight will last a factor of five rounds (10 to be exact) in favor of Manny Pacquiao.

The fight between Lucian Bute (29-0, 24 KO’s) and Glen Johnson (51-15-2, 35 KO’s) will play out like most of Johnson’s recent title bouts.

It goes something like this.

‘John Doe’ is an up-and-coming belt-holder and is looking for a credible opponent to assess his skills against, when no other top opponent is readily available.

Enter Glen Johnson. The man appropriately nicknamed the "Road Warrior" will fight John Doe at any weight he desires as well as at any venue.

John Doe knows that the Road Warrior is tough-as-nails, but also knows that Doe can be out-slicked.

So John Doe begrudgingly signs on the dotted line, and we have John Doe vs Glen Johnson.

In the curious case that is Glen Johnson’s career, John Doe has most recently been played by super middleweight titlist Carl Froch. Light heavyweight titlists Tavoris Cloud and Chad Dawson also starred in the role.

Now, add Lucian Bute to that list.

Like prior John Does, he’ll have the "home ring" advantage as well as considerable advantages in age (11 years to be exact) and hand speed.

And unlike the John Doe (see image above) who met a deathly fate in one of my favorite movies of all-time, Se7en, Lucian Bute will emerge victorious via a comprehensive, unanimous decision next Saturday.

This is a very tricky fight prediction for me. Chad Dawson has the faster hands and faster feet. Being the younger and fresher fighter, I also expect him to be busier in every round.

“B-Hop” counters with superior experience in big fights, a tighter defense and an overall better boxing I.Q.

This has all the makings of a highly-competitive, but highly-tactical (code word for boring, unless you’re a boxing purist like yours truly) championship fight.

When I computed the likely outcome of this fight with my handy fight prediction tool, all signs point towards a decision victory for the venerable Hopkins. But when I adjusted the weights for hand speed and foot speed to reflect the significant gap in these areas between both fighters, Dawson came out on top, albeit narrowly.

Ultimately, Dawson will be faster, fresher and just too active for Hopkins to keep up with over the 12 rounds. This will be reminiscent of Hopkins’ narrow losses to Jermain Taylor, except that Dawson is a far superior boxer to Taylor.

Chad Dawson will defeat Bernard Hopkins via a clear-cut unanimous decision victory on Saturday, October 15, 2011 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California.

And it doesn’t hurt that Chad has the better last name (wink).