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Same fighters. Different location. Same result: Paulie Malignaggi (26-3-1, 5 KOs) out-boxes Juan Diaz (35-2, 17 KOs) over 12 rounds. Who will the official decision actually go to? Your guess is as good as mine.

When I predicted Diaz-Malignaggi I, I went with my gut and was proven right by the judges. They say to always go with your gut but I’ll go with my mind this time around, and not because I have missed ab class this week.

I’m rolling the dice on Malignaggi because:

1. No matter what the judges tallied, I felt that he edged Diaz in the first fight. Feeling that he truly won, Paulie will have a world of confidence on Saturday night.
2. The location of the fight has changed. Although Chicago, Illinois has a significant Mexican-American population, don’t expect the home ring advantage for Diaz to be as substantial as it was in his backyard of Houston, Texas.
3. The judges will be nervous. Given the perception that Diaz-Malignaggi I was viewed by many as a hometown decision, they may be inclined to err on the side of Malignaggi in close rounds to give the impression of fairness.

Make no mistake about it, I am not expecting Paulie Malignaggi to dominate Juan Diaz in any way, shape or form. He just doesn’t do that. But I do believe that if he fights exactly as he did in their first fight, he’ll get the nod. It won’t be unanimous, but he’ll get a majority or split decision nonetheless.

Vitali Klitschko (38-2, 37 KOs) vs Kevin Johnson (22-0-1, 9 KOs) is as legit a heavyweight title fight that you will get today. In Klitschko, you have a widely-respected champion facing an undefeated American prospect in Johnson. The problem is that this ain’t your parent’s heavyweights (from the 1970s or 1990s).

We are in the midst of "Generation Y" and I often ask myself why aren’t the heavyweights moving me anymore. I have an idea why, but beggars can’t be choosers. If we’re lucky this fight just may exceed expectations. I mean it has to be better than Klitschko-Arreola.

Kevin Johnson is no bum. The problem is that most of his wins are against bums. Sound harsh? Well, I’ll spell it out for you. Terry Smith, Bruce Seldon, Matthew Greer and Devin Vargas are the last four wins on his record. That record speaks for itself. Don’t get it twisted, I think Johnson is a very competent fighter but I do not think taking open book quizzes (his competition to-date) is enough preparation for the test that is Klitschko.

Vitali Klitschko’s record also speaks for itself. Just ask Chris Arreola, Samuel Peter, Corrie Sanders, Kirk Johnson and even Lennox Lewis (who defeated him). If he were interviewing, not many people would be able to match his list of references. They have experienced his handy work (right hands in particular) in living color. And so will Johnson.

Like a fly, expect Johnson to dart in and out and frustrate Klitschko at times – he’s slick like that. Ultimately however, the fly swatter, also known as Vitali’s right hand, will stop Johnson in his tracks. By round nine, the fight will likely end. It seems like all of Klitschko’s wins end around that time.

I will not hide the disappointment that I felt when the middleweight title fight between reigning champion Kelly Pavlik (35-1, 31 KOs) and Paul the Punisher Williams (37-1, 27 KOs) was cancelled. Replacing Pavlik is the very capable Sergio Martinez (44-1-2, 24 KOs). However, I had my taste buds all set for a nice sirloin steak (Pavlik-Williams) but had to settle for a tasty burger with fries (Williams-Martinez). Both fights are beefy, but the former obviously had more meat to it than the latter. But I’ll stop being greedy and will accept the fact that Williams-Martinez is a pretty damn good fill-in.

Speaking of pretty damn good, Paul Williams is just that. Right now, I think he is one of the five or six best boxers in the world. Very few fighters combine his uncanny blend of height (he stands 6′1"), reach (he has a heavyweight-like 82 inch reach) and punch output (he often throws 100+ punchers per round). To say that Sergio Martinez will have his hands full is an understatement. In fact, it’s more like his face will be full of hands, as I expect the Punisher to beat him into submission.

For those of you who think Martinez will win, you will probably point to Williams’ struggles with another slick southpaw Carlos Quintana (26-2, 20 KOs) nearly two years ago. In the lone loss of Williams’ career, he was totally out-slicked by Quintana over 12 brisk rounds. Four months later, Williams annihilated Quintana in a rematch via first round knockout. And most recently, Williams dominated one of the slickest southpaws in recent years when he nearly pitched a shutout against Winky Wright (51-5-1, 25 KOs).

When the dust settles, Paul Williams will emerge victorious via 9th round stoppage. OK, I’m off to get a burger.

This is an easy one to predict. Lucian Bute (24-0, 19 KOs) is arguably the best super middleweight in the world. I say arguably because Arthur Abraham and suddenly Andre Ward, fresh off of his dismantling of Mikkel Kessler, can also make legitimate claims. Be that as it may, I do not expect Bute to have any problem dispatching of the very limited Librado Andrade (28-2, 21 KOs).

Let’s be honest. The only reason this fight is taking place is because Andrade nearly stopped the careless and tiring Bute in the final round of their fight a year ago. It was a fight in which he was being thoroughly out-boxed and out-classed. I’m sure Andrade and his handlers feel they can build on the momentum of that near-knockout victory.

Bute, on the other hand, simply needs to not get knocked out. If he sticks to the game plan of boxing, lateral movement and crisp counter-punching, he should cruise to victory. If he gets hyped up by his hometown crowd in Quebec, Canada and elects to trade bombs with Andrade, he gives his opponent his only chance at victory.

Bute is smarter than that. He will pitch a near-shutout and win by unanimous decision in a fight that really does not need to take place. No matter who emerges as the winner of the super middleweight tournament, Lucian Bute’s name must enter the fray in any conversation about who’s the best 168-pounder in the world. Let’s hope this question gets answered soon in the ring.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "Home advantage is an athletic competition phenomenon. The most-commonly cited factors of home advantage are usually ones whose advantageous effects are difficult to measure and thus even their existence is debated. Most of these are psychological in nature, such as familiarity with the playing grounds, the ability for participants to lodge in their homes rather than in a hotel, less likelihood of travel immediately prior to the game, and the psychological support of the fans in attendance."

When Andre Ward (20-0, 13 KOs) challenges arguably the best super middleweight in the world in Mikkel Kessler (42-1, 32 KOs) on Saturday, he’ll have Oakland, California on his side. And we will find out that the psychological support of the fans in attendance will inevitably influence the judges in attendance. It almost always does. No matter how competent or fair an official is, close fights (which I expect this fight to be) often have a way of going to the "home" fighter. 

Ward also brings an array of other advantages into the ring against Kessler. He’s very fast of hand and foot, and only 25 years old. This speed-youth combination is going to be a bundle for Kessler to overcome. And if Ward’s career-defining (so far) decision victory over Edison Miranda is any indication, Ward can perform well on the big stage against a credible opponent.

It doesn’t get more credible than Mikkel Kessler at 168 pounds. He’s taken on and defeated Anthony Mundine, Eric Lucas, Markus Beyer, and Librado Andrade. His only loss was to Joe Calzaghe (retired). In addition to facing far superior competition, Kessler packs a heavier punch than Ward. And if that punch lands, Ward has demonstrated (i.e. early in his career) that he may not be able to take it well.

This Saturday the battle-tested Kessler’s determination and power will go up against Ward’s speed, youth and home-ring advantage. The scores will read 116-112, 115-113 and 115-113 in favor of Andre Ward. Yes, you can go home again.