Fight Insight

You are probably wondering why I am even asking this question, if I already am telling you who I think that person is based on my top boxers, pound-for- pound list.  Hey, just because I predict boxing matches very well (this year, at least), does not mean that I think I have figured everything out. And unlike boxing predictions, which are ultimately proven right or wrong based on what happens in the ring, determining who the best fighter in the world is a highly subjective matter.

Hopefully, you accessed my boxing ranking page mentioned above.  Whether you did or not, I’ll get straight to the point.  For better or for worse, Floyd "Money" Mayweather is still the best boxer in the world.  "For better," he still has the best defense of any fighter in the sport, and perhaps its faster pair of fists.  "For worse," he has increasingly fought in relatively low-risk, high reward fights (Arturo Gatti, Zab Judah, and Oscar De La Hoya) for a fighter of his caliber. 

The lucrative WWF "Big Show" that he recently put on and his "Dancing with the Stars" have done well for Mayweather’s pockets, but have done little for the sport of boxing.  These events have generated frustration among even his staunchest fans while providing his "haters" with more ammunition (to shoot him down with) than Arnold Schwarzenegger in Commando.  However, despite all of this, as well as the continued ascension of Joe Calzaghe and Manny Pacquiao over the past year, my money is still on Mayweather.

Now that I have gotten my last shameless ‘money’ reference out of the way, please leave a comment below to get the debate going.  I know you have something to say; take a deep breath, refrain from cursing, and type away.

On April 15, I told you to expect Joe Calzaghe to outwork Bernard Hopkins.  The only thing that stopped my prediction from being 100% correct was the judge who scored the bout 114-113 in favor of Hopkins, making it a split decision win for Calzaghe, instead of the unanimous decision that I predicted.  However, by no means was it an easy win for the "Pride of Wales."  Has anything ever been easy when Hopkins is involved?  From fight purse negotiations to exchanges inside and outside of the ring, Hopkins is always difficult to deal with.

The difficult Hopkins let Calzaghe know immediately, courtesy of a well-timed counter right hand that led to the fight’s only knockdown, that his first visit to the United States was not going to be a walk in the park.  In fact, it appeared that Hopkins was going to walk through him. I was thinking, "here we go again," as Hopkins appeared to be forcing Calzaghe to follow him around the ring, throw fewer punches than usual, and leave himself exposed for right hands, like so many of his victims in the past.

Was it jitters from fighting in the U.S. for the first time or was it simply that Hopkins was more savvy in the ring than Yoda in a light-saber battle?  Whatever it was, Calzaghe ultimately overcame it. Midway through the fight he slowly gained control.  He simply wouldn’t let the fading Hopkins rest.  He overwhelmed the older man by simply throwing more punches. 

Although they often lacked power, Calzaghe’s quick combinations served two purposes.  One, they showed the ringside judges that he was the fresher fighter.  Two, they kept Hopkins in a defensive shell.  In a final act of desperation, Hopkins appeared to milk an unintentional low blow that Calzaghe landed in the tenth round in an attempt to entice the ref to deduct a point from Calzaghe.  Veteran referee Joe Cortez would have none of it. Two rounds later Cortez would be raising Calzaghe’s hand in victory.

Now that he is the Ring light heavyweight champion of the world, do not expect Joe Calzaghe to move back down to super middleweight to defend his 168-pound title.  Expect him to seek greener pasture$ against another past-prime superstar, Roy Jones, Jr.  Is this the best possible match at 175 pounds? It is absolutely not. But it will likely take place this fall, and I will watch.  What’s next for Bernard "the Executioner" Hopkins? The future Hall of Famer can retire and focus on his Golden Boy East promotional responsibilities, or he can chase a few more paydays against the likes of Glen Johnson, Chad Dawson or Antonio Tarver.  One thing he surely won’t be doing, is boasting that he will never lose to a white boy.

Make no mistake about it, I am not as comfortable as I would like to be with this fight prediction. Picking against Bernard Hopkins (48-4-, 32 KOs) is like picking against Tom Brady in the fourth quarter - you just feel he’s going to find a way to win. However, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let my feelings take over my insight. My mind tells me that Joe Calzaghe (44-0, 32 KOs) gets a "check" in just about every category that matters, except one. The one area that Hopkins has an advantage in is his unrivaled ring smarts - and it is his only hope in this fight. What’s between Bernard’s ears can potentially negate all of Calzaghe’s strengths in speed, natural size, and footwork. Anyone that remembers Hopkins’s dominant wins over the favored Felix Trinidad (TKO 12) and Antonio Tarver (UD 12) need not be reminded.  Trust me, I remember.

I’ve had a busy week so far, so I will keep it short. In his first visit to the United States for a fight, Joe Calzaghe will experience some butterflies early on.  But I expect him to find his rhythm by about round five.  From this point on, he will display too much hand speed, combination punching, and fancy footwork for the 43-year old light heavyweight champion, at this advanced stage of his career. In the pre-fight hype Bernard Hopkins ranted that he would never let a white boy beat him. Let’s just say I hope that ring announcer Larry Merchant raises the issue in the post-fight interview.

JOE CALZAGHE BY UNANIMOUS DECION OVER BERNARD HOPKINS

Two days ago I mentioned that Miguel Cotto (31-0, 25 KO’s) would beat the crap out of Alfonso Gomez (18-3, 8 KO’s) in my Tarver vs Woods; Dawson vs Johnson post.  The reason is simple.  Cotto is the superior fighter.  Need I say more? I really don’t need to, but I will share my sterling insight nonetheless. 

At 27 years of age, Miguel Cotto is in his physical prime and clicking on all cylinders.  He’s coming off the biggest win of his career, an exciting decision over "Sugar" Shane Mosley last November.  Prior to that, Cotto handed "Super" Zab Judah the worst beating of his career.  And two fights before the Judah victory, he forced Carlos Quintana to quit in five rounds.  The Quintana win is especially impressive when you consider that Quintana went on to easily defeat the highly-touted Paul "The Punisher" Williams earlier this year.  What do these victories mean for Cotto’s fight with Gomez? They show that he is not only the better fighter, but has fought and defeated far better competition. 

Alfonso Gomez is coming off of two nice victories.  However, a win over a past-prime Ben Tackie (UD 10) and a blood-letting of shop-worn Arturo Gatti (TKO 7) are not enough to pass the "Cotto test."  Look for the faster and stronger Cotto to win by stoppage within eight rounds.

I have said it once before, and I will say it again: rarely will you see the loser (of the first fight) win the rematch, especially if that fighter was defeated convincingly.  When you get dominated (L TKO 5) the way that Kermit "The Killer" Cintron (29-1, 27 KO’s) was three years ago against Antonio Margarito (35-5, 25 KO’s), I just have a hard time seeing him turn the tables this time around.  Sorry, I am not overly impressed by Cintron’s blowout win over Walter Matthysse, nor his recent KO victory over Jesse Feliciano.  Cintron has registered five knockouts and has had Hall of Fame trainer Emmanuel Steward in his corner since the destruction at the hands of Margarito in 2005.  However, history will pretty much repeat itself in the rematch on Saturday. 

My prediction: Margarito TKO 8 Kermit Cintron

When was the last time you saw four of the best fighters in the same division fight on the same card? Don’t worry, I’ll wait (for your response). While I wait, I’ll let you in on a little secret. It rarely happens. This Saturday, Showtime Championship Boxing blesses us with a rare championship double-header, pitting Antonio Tarver 26-4 (19 KO’s) against Clinton Woods 41-3-1 (24 KO’s) for the IBF light heavyweight scrap, while Glencoffe Johnson 47-11-2 (37 KO’s) battles "Bad" Chad Dawson 25-0 (17 KO’s) for his WBC light heavyweight title. Ultimately, I hope the winners of each fight face off later in the year to further clarify the light heavyweight title picture. However, I’ll first focus on this weekend’s fights, who’s going to win them, and why.

In the first bout, the multi-talented Dawson faces the "Road Warrior" Glen Johnson. For my money, this fight will steal the show. It’s the classic crossroads fight between a younger, up-and-coming fighter (Dawson) and an older, battle-tested veteran (Johnson). It’s obvious that Dawson is the more gifted fighter, with his uncanny blend of speed, power and footwork. However, Johnson has faced future Hall of Famers in Roy Jones, Jr. (KO victory) and Bernard Hopkins (KO defeat).  The list doesn’t stop there.  He has also fought Clinton Woods three times, Antonio Tarver two times and Sven Ottke once. 

Johnson has a clear advantage over Dawson in terms of competition and overall ring experience.  Will this be enough to overcome Dawson’s advantages in height (four inches), reach (two inches), and speed?  The answer is no - as Dawson’s youth and talent will carry the day.  Don’t expect a blowout though; expect a close decision victory for "Bad" Chad.  Although Johnson has 11 losses, he has only been dominated once (by Bernard Hopkins).

In the so-called main event, Antonio "Magic Man" Tarver faces off against perennial contender Clinton Woods. Both men have faced similar top competition, including Roy Jones, Jr. and Glencoffe Johnson. However, Tarver has fared better against these two opponents. His record against them is 3-2 while Woods has gone 1-2-1.  Both men stand 6′2" tall, but it’s Tarver who is the superior boxer and jabber. Because of these advantages, I look for Tarver to win a workmanlike unanimous decision over the game, but less-talented Woods. Don’t expect a thriller though.

Thursday, I will let you know why Miguel Cotto will beat the crap out of Alfonso Gomez. Stay tuned.