Fight Insight Boxing Betting, Predictions and Tickets at FightInsight.com.

As we wrap up one of boxing’s best years in recent memory, the sport’s ugly face has suddenly re-appeared. When Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Manny Pacquiao quickly agreed to terms on their mega-showdown for March 13, 2010, we all jumped for you. We should have known better.

An increasingly nasty disagreement between Golden Boy Promotions (representing Mayweather) and Top Rank (representing Pacquiao) over the parameters of blood testing for performance-enhancing drugs is seriously threatening the fight from happening.

Below, I re-state key points made by both sides in this bloody mess. In italics, I tell you what I really think is going on.

Mayweather’s Case: Why Olympic-style Blood Testing Is A No-Brainer

1. In the sport’s biggest fight in years, it’s only natural that its two combatants be subject to the most rigorous testing to ensure that no foul play is at hand. Marion Jones and numerous other track stars showed that the Olympic-style United States Anti-Doping Agency tests could be beat. So their test is far from perfect. Some think Mayweather is merely trying to get into Pacquiao’s head and distract him before their showdown. Others think it’s a not-so-sneaky way to suggest that Pacquiao is a cheater and to subject him to random testing in order to confirm those suspicions. I say it’s a little bit of both.
2. If Mayweather has to accept Pacquiao’s demands of using smaller gloves (8 ounces), which favors Pacquiao based on Floyd’s history of hand troubles, as well as the unprecedented "$10 million/per pound-over-the-weight-limit" penalty, what’s the big fuss over Pacquiao conceding to this Mayweather demand? Not since Sugar Ray Leonard’s demands of a larger ring and a 12-round limit (rather than 15) against Marvelous Marvin Hagler nearly 25 years ago, have I seen such pre-fight contractual posturing. Any coincidence that Arum was also involved then (on behalf of Leonard)? In short, Mayweather has a point here.

Pacquiao’s Case: Why Olympic-style Blood Testing Is Unnecessary

1. Random blood testing is impractical and dangerous, especially if it is conducted within weeks or days of the actual fight. Losing blood so close to fight time can weaken a fighter. From everything I have read, the amount of blood taken for these tests is not exactly pint-sized. Meaning that it would be unlikely to limit either fighter. And two, even if it did, wouldn’t both fighters be impacted in the same way?
2. This is merely an attempt by Mayweather to sully Pacquiao’s reputation and imply that he is a cheater. Pacquiao’s handlers are probably right here. However, if they turn down the biggest payday in boxing history to fight Paulie Malignaggi (one of Pacquiao’s biggest accusers to-date) instead, my eyebrows will be on the back of my neck.
3. Why should Pacquiao have to be subjected to unprecedented blood testing procedures when he’s been clean on all tests mandated by the Nevada State Athletic Commission and other municipalities across the world just because Golden Boy and Mayweather Promotions want him to? I’m paraphrasing Pacquiao’s promoter Bob Arum here, and he’s right. But he also knows better. From Sugar Ray Leonard’s aforementioned ‘advantages’ in his fight with Hagler, to Bernard Hopkins’s insistence that Joe Cortez not referee his fight against Felix Trinidad, all fighters and their promoters use their influence to tip superfights in their favor. This is no different.

When it’s all said and done, money will prove thicker than blood. Expect this fight to happen on March 13, 2010. If it doesn’t, then shame on everyone involved. Boxing has had its fair share of black eyes over the years. A cold, raw steak is often used to reduce the swelling, but this black eye would require an entire cow. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

What’s your take on this bloody mess?

Same fighters. Different location. Same result: Paulie Malignaggi (26-3-1, 5 KOs) out-boxes Juan Diaz (35-2, 17 KOs) over 12 rounds. Who will the official decision actually go to? Your guess is as good as mine.

When I predicted Diaz-Malignaggi I, I went with my gut and was proven right by the judges. They say to always go with your gut but I’ll go with my mind this time around, and not because I have missed ab class this week.

I’m rolling the dice on Malignaggi because:

1. No matter what the judges tallied, I felt that he edged Diaz in the first fight. Feeling that he truly won, Paulie will have a world of confidence on Saturday night.
2. The location of the fight has changed. Although Chicago, Illinois has a significant Mexican-American population, don’t expect the home ring advantage for Diaz to be as substantial as it was in his backyard of Houston, Texas.
3. The judges will be nervous. Given the perception that Diaz-Malignaggi I was viewed by many as a hometown decision, they may be inclined to err on the side of Malignaggi in close rounds to give the impression of fairness.

Make no mistake about it, I am not expecting Paulie Malignaggi to dominate Juan Diaz in any way, shape or form. He just doesn’t do that. But I do believe that if he fights exactly as he did in their first fight, he’ll get the nod. It won’t be unanimous, but he’ll get a majority or split decision nonetheless.

Vitali Klitschko (38-2, 37 KOs) vs Kevin Johnson (22-0-1, 9 KOs) is as legit a heavyweight title fight that you will get today. In Klitschko, you have a widely-respected champion facing an undefeated American prospect in Johnson. The problem is that this ain’t your parent’s heavyweights (from the 1970s or 1990s).

We are in the midst of "Generation Y" and I often ask myself why aren’t the heavyweights moving me anymore. I have an idea why, but beggars can’t be choosers. If we’re lucky this fight just may exceed expectations. I mean it has to be better than Klitschko-Arreola.

Kevin Johnson is no bum. The problem is that most of his wins are against bums. Sound harsh? Well, I’ll spell it out for you. Terry Smith, Bruce Seldon, Matthew Greer and Devin Vargas are the last four wins on his record. That record speaks for itself. Don’t get it twisted, I think Johnson is a very competent fighter but I do not think taking open book quizzes (his competition to-date) is enough preparation for the test that is Klitschko.

Vitali Klitschko’s record also speaks for itself. Just ask Chris Arreola, Samuel Peter, Corrie Sanders, Kirk Johnson and even Lennox Lewis (who defeated him). If he were interviewing, not many people would be able to match his list of references. They have experienced his handy work (right hands in particular) in living color. And so will Johnson.

Like a fly, expect Johnson to dart in and out and frustrate Klitschko at times – he’s slick like that. Ultimately however, the fly swatter, also known as Vitali’s right hand, will stop Johnson in his tracks. By round nine, the fight will likely end. It seems like all of Klitschko’s wins end around that time.

I will not hide the disappointment that I felt when the middleweight title fight between reigning champion Kelly Pavlik (35-1, 31 KOs) and Paul the Punisher Williams (37-1, 27 KOs) was cancelled. Replacing Pavlik is the very capable Sergio Martinez (44-1-2, 24 KOs). However, I had my taste buds all set for a nice sirloin steak (Pavlik-Williams) but had to settle for a tasty burger with fries (Williams-Martinez). Both fights are beefy, but the former obviously had more meat to it than the latter. But I’ll stop being greedy and will accept the fact that Williams-Martinez is a pretty damn good fill-in.

Speaking of pretty damn good, Paul Williams is just that. Right now, I think he is one of the five or six best boxers in the world. Very few fighters combine his uncanny blend of height (he stands 6′1"), reach (he has a heavyweight-like 82 inch reach) and punch output (he often throws 100+ punchers per round). To say that Sergio Martinez will have his hands full is an understatement. In fact, it’s more like his face will be full of hands, as I expect the Punisher to beat him into submission.

For those of you who think Martinez will win, you will probably point to Williams’ struggles with another slick southpaw Carlos Quintana (26-2, 20 KOs) nearly two years ago. In the lone loss of Williams’ career, he was totally out-slicked by Quintana over 12 brisk rounds. Four months later, Williams annihilated Quintana in a rematch via first round knockout. And most recently, Williams dominated one of the slickest southpaws in recent years when he nearly pitched a shutout against Winky Wright (51-5-1, 25 KOs).

When the dust settles, Paul Williams will emerge victorious via 9th round stoppage. OK, I’m off to get a burger.

This is an easy one to predict. Lucian Bute (24-0, 19 KOs) is arguably the best super middleweight in the world. I say arguably because Arthur Abraham and suddenly Andre Ward, fresh off of his dismantling of Mikkel Kessler, can also make legitimate claims. Be that as it may, I do not expect Bute to have any problem dispatching of the very limited Librado Andrade (28-2, 21 KOs).

Let’s be honest. The only reason this fight is taking place is because Andrade nearly stopped the careless and tiring Bute in the final round of their fight a year ago. It was a fight in which he was being thoroughly out-boxed and out-classed. I’m sure Andrade and his handlers feel they can build on the momentum of that near-knockout victory.

Bute, on the other hand, simply needs to not get knocked out. If he sticks to the game plan of boxing, lateral movement and crisp counter-punching, he should cruise to victory. If he gets hyped up by his hometown crowd in Quebec, Canada and elects to trade bombs with Andrade, he gives his opponent his only chance at victory.

Bute is smarter than that. He will pitch a near-shutout and win by unanimous decision in a fight that really does not need to take place. No matter who emerges as the winner of the super middleweight tournament, Lucian Bute’s name must enter the fray in any conversation about who’s the best 168-pounder in the world. Let’s hope this question gets answered soon in the ring.