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I am in a somewhat irritable mood based on my recent boxing prediction failures. But as you probably guessed, I ain’t going anywhere. I’m in it to win it, like an accomplished boxer trying to save his career. It may sound kind of extreme, but when Miguel Cotto (34-2, 27 KOs) meets Yuri Foreman (28-0, 8 KOs) for the WBA alphabelt, he’ll be fighting to remain relevant as one of the sport’s elite.

The pride of Caguas, Puerto Rico will be successful in his trip to Yankee Stadium in two weeks, and here’s why:

1. Location. "The House that Ruth Built" may not be the safe haven that Madison Square Garden has been to Cotto throughout his career. But I’m guessing that the convenient Bronx locale, with its heavy Puerto Rican population, will provide Cotto with a distinct home ring advantage at Yankee Stadium.
2. Hand Speed. Don’t get it twisted, Cotto is no speed demon. But I think this will be a rare case (of late at least) in which he’ll have the hand speed advantage. Facing Yuri Foreman after the whirlwind that is Manny Pacquiao will be a relief to Cotto. 
3. Ring Generalship. Foreman is actually a clever fighter who knows how to maneuver in that ring. However, he’s not on the elite level of a boxer like Cotto. Cotto can box and brawl. Foreman can box and brawl too, sans the power. Advantage Cotto.
4. Competition. Here is where the gap is as wide as Michael Strahan’s toothy grin. Miguel Cotto has faced Manny Pacquiao (loss), Shane Mosley (win), Antonio Margarito (loss), Zab Judah (win) and Paulie Malignaggi (win). Yuri Foreman’s biggest threat to-date? A woefully out-of-shape Daniel Santos (win) in his last fight. Welcome to the big leagues Yuri.
5. Power. If you are Top Rank’s Bob Arum, who promotes both fighters, this fight is perfect for business. It’s a major event because of its location. The B-side of the matchup (Foreman) gets a big payday and big fight exposure. The A-side (Cotto) gets the chance to pick up another belt and restore his career against a guy with less power than clock radio speakers.
6. Conditioning. From what I have seen from Foreman, he appears to have a pretty decent motor. In the closing moments of his alphabelt-winning performance against Santos, he really closed the show in the final round. That’s the sign of a guy who gives his all over a fight’s distance. And we all have seen how Cotto often wilts late in fights. Advantage Foreman.
7. Chin. I would not say that Cotto has a bad chin, but he doesn’t exactly have a good one. Luckily for Cotto, Foreman does not hit like George (Foreman). If he did, this flaw would possibly be a fatal one.
8. Footwork. Foreman has the advantage here. Neither man will make us forget the late Michael Jackson. However, I truly believe that the punishment that Cotto received at the possibly loaded (Margarito) and unloaded (Pacquiao, Clottey) hands of his recent opponents may have taken away his legs for good.
9. Size/Strength. A career junior middleweight, Foreman is four inches taller, has a five-inch reach advantage, and is naturally stronger than the former junior welterweight and welterweight champion Cotto. Size often does matter. But in boxing, skills usually matter more. 
10. Defense. Cotto has never had the best defense, His offense acts as his defense. Foreman is no defensive stalwart from what I have seen, but he’s pretty good at using his size and ring smarts to avoid heavy punishment. I give him an advantage here.

Despite Foreman’s considerable size advantage, look for Cotto’s overall class to carry the day. Assuming that he still has something left, Miguel Cotto will capture his third belt in a different weight class and regain some of his lost confidence, via late stoppage.

First off, I want to apologize to my dedicated commenters, like Jeff, who warned me not to pick Paulie Malignaggi to upset Amir Khan. That upset pick halted my 20 boxing prediction winning streak. The "fight pickings" get no easier this week.

Enter the fourth installation of Israel Vazquez (44-4, 32 KOs) vs. Rafael Marquez (38-5, 34 KOs).

Logic dictates that this will be business as usual in favor of Vazquez. He lost their first epic battle but has gone on to batter and bruise Marquez in their second and third (albeit very close) bouts. If only predicting tough fights like these were so easy.

I’ll spare you the detailed breakdown of the key factors that will determine the winner. As was the case in their previous three fights, Rafael Marquez has superior technical skills. Skill usually trumps will. However, if you know anything about this series, you know that it’s been Israel Vazquez’s will that has won out two out of three times.

Will Skill or Will Win This Time Around?

Your guess is as good as mine. However, I won’t be guessing this go-round, given what happened with my most recent prediction. The will of Israel Vazquez will edge (via decision) the skill of Rafael Marquez in what promises to be another brutal, close and exciting affair.

When Amir "King" Khan (22-1, 16 KOs) makes his American debut at Madison Square Garden this Saturday against one of Brooklyn’s finest pure boxers Paulie Malignaggi (27-3, 5 KOs), it reminds me of Prince Naseem Hamed’s triumphant journey to the Big Apple’s core in 1997 against one of Queens’ finest boxer-punchers – Kevin "the Flushing Flash" Kelley.

I’m know I’m dating myself with the Hamed-Kelley reference, but the similarities are pretty interesting.

Amir Khan is being billed as the next big thing out of great Britain. And like Naseem Hamed, he has Middle Eastern roots. Stylistically, no one mirrors the enigma that was Hamed, but Khan has two things in common with him: power and speed.

On the American side of the pond, enter Paulie Malignaggi. Like Kevin Kelley before him, the "Magic Man" can run his mouth with the best of them. He may not pack a wallop like the "Flushing Flash" but he has fast feet like the Flash of Marvel Comics lore.

Who do I think is going to win?

On the surface, this fight is the first stop on Amir Khan’s American tour. Paulie Malignaggi plays the veteran gatekeeper who will either a) expose Khan or b) jump-start his career.

I am going with option A, in a huge upset. Buoyed by the New York City crowd, his fast legs and his resolute chin, I am picking Paulie Malignaggi to win a narrow, split decision.

Kevin Kelley would be proud.

The Paul "the Punisher" Williams (38-1, 27 KOs) vs. Kermit "the Killer" Cintron billboard reads like a comic book movie title. And yes, it will be violent. In a fight that was originally scheduled to take place nearly two years ago, I expect Williams to be too much for Cintron in their junior middleweight tussle.

I give Paul Williams advantages in most critical areas except punching power, defense (even) and locale (even). The competition that each boxer has faced is very comparable. In fact, they have three notable common opponents. Let’s take a closer look. 

1. Walter Matthysse. Williams battered the Argentinian bomber on his way to a 10th round stoppage. Cintron nearly decapitated Matthysse in two rounds a year later. Perhaps Williams softened him up, but Cintron’s win was better.
2. Antonio Margarito. Margarito bludgeoned Cintron twice inside the distance when they met. Williams out-boxed and out-punched him when they met. The defeat of Margarito is still arguably Williams’ career-defining win.
3. Sergio Martinez. Cintron was lucky as hell to get a draw against Martinez. Williams was fortunate to get a win. However, Williams legitimately earned his razor-thin decision while Cintron was bailed out from a KO loss by suspect officiating.

As noted above, Paul Williams tends to rise to the occassion against his greatest competition. The Alfred Angulo victory aside, Kermit Cintron has not been as successful in similar matches. But that’s not the only thing in Williams’ favor. He’s got one helluva chin, unlimited reserves in his gas tank, and throws so many punches you lose count. Simply put, that is too much for Cintron to handle.

Paul Williams TKO 9 Kermit Cintron.

Move over David Letterman. Well, not exactly. With The Fight just five days away, I figure now is a good time to add on my official Mayweather vs Mosley fight prediction.

You already know who I think is going to win based on the key factors that often determine the outcome of boxing matches. But today I explain other intangibles that may not be as obvious to the untrained eye.

The Top Ten Reasons Why Shane Mosley Will NOT Defeat Floyd Mayweather. Jr.

10. Inactivity. Shane Mosley has not fought in nearly a year-and-a-half. Combine that with the fact that he’s got 38-year old legs, and you have all the makings of a sour Sugar entering the ring. If Mosley’s reflexes have dulled significantly since his last fight, he has no chance.

9. Las Vegas. I wouldn’t call Mayweather’s decision victories over Jose Luis Castillo (twice) and Oscar De La Hoya hometown decisions, but one can not deny that he’s been given the benefit of the doubt fighting in his adopted hometown of Las Vegas. In a fight that most expect to go the distance, that does not bode well for Shane.

8. Nazim Richardson. Don’t get me wrong, Richardson is one of the best trainers in boxing. However, Mosley has shown a tendency to get confused against slick boxers (i.e. Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright previously) while trying to apply wordy instructions from his cornerman. That challenge would be magnified against Mayweather.

7. Miguel Cotto. You need to look no further than the final three rounds of Mosley’s fight against Cotto a few years ago to see elements of a blueprint to befuddle an older, slower version of the Sugar man. If Shane thought Cotto was hard to pin down, he’ll find catching Mayweather to be the equivalent of trying to pick up salt with chopsticks.

6. Mileage. Mosley simply has more tread on his tires. He has fought longer professionally and has been in more physical wars than Mayweather. The good news for Mosley is that he has more big fight experience against elite competition than Mayweather does. The down side is that the experience came with a price to the body.

5. Style. And I am not talking about each boxer’s fashion eye. I still shudder when I see clips of Mosley sporting that flammable green suit during the press tour. But I digress. Although Shane is one quick-fisted, hard-hitting SOB, he’s at his best when fighters (e.g. Vargas and Margarito) stand right in front of him. Mayweather will not be as willing.

4. Money. "Cash Rules Everything Around Me. CREAM. Get the money, dollar-dollar-bill-y’all…" This hip-hop quotable from the Wu-Tang Clan should be Mayweather’s theme music. Mosley will be very motivated to knock the smirk off of his nemesis’s face, but I think Mayweather will be even more obsessed to make "Mayweather-Pacquiao money."

3. Size. Although Shane Mosley may be cut-up like a julienne salad, do not let the weight room physique sway your judgment here. Neither man qualifies as a big welterweight. Both men stand shorter than 5′10" and were at their peak powers at lighter weights. Mosley may be able to do more reps on the bench press, but that won’t help him here.

2. Jab. It’s no secret that one of the best ways to negate speed is by using an educated jab. Oscar De La Hoya did it early in his fight against Floyd, but couldn’t keep up the pace late. Everyone is raving about Mosley’s jab against Antonio Margarito. Jabbing the easy-to-hit Margarito is one thing; jabbing Mayweather is another thing altogether.

1. Floyd Mayweather. This just in. Mayweather is the better all-around boxer. That’s reason enough to expect the Pretty Boy to emerge victorious.