Fight Insight

On April 15, I told you to expect Joe Calzaghe to outwork Bernard Hopkins.  The only thing that stopped my prediction from being 100% correct was the judge who scored the bout 114-113 in favor of Hopkins, making it a split decision win for Calzaghe, instead of the unanimous decision that I predicted.  However, by no means was it an easy win for the "Pride of Wales."  Has anything ever been easy when Hopkins is involved?  From fight purse negotiations to exchanges inside and outside of the ring, Hopkins is always difficult to deal with.

The difficult Hopkins let Calzaghe know immediately, courtesy of a well-timed counter right hand that led to the fight’s only knockdown, that his first visit to the United States was not going to be a walk in the park.  In fact, it appeared that Hopkins was going to walk through him. I was thinking, "here we go again," as Hopkins appeared to be forcing Calzaghe to follow him around the ring, throw fewer punches than usual, and leave himself exposed for right hands, like so many of his victims in the past.

Was it jitters from fighting in the U.S. for the first time or was it simply that Hopkins was more savvy in the ring than Yoda in a light-saber battle?  Whatever it was, Calzaghe ultimately overcame it. Midway through the fight he slowly gained control.  He simply wouldn’t let the fading Hopkins rest.  He overwhelmed the older man by simply throwing more punches. 

Although they often lacked power, Calzaghe’s quick combinations served two purposes.  One, they showed the ringside judges that he was the fresher fighter.  Two, they kept Hopkins in a defensive shell.  In a final act of desperation, Hopkins appeared to milk an unintentional low blow that Calzaghe landed in the tenth round in an attempt to entice the ref to deduct a point from Calzaghe.  Veteran referee Joe Cortez would have none of it. Two rounds later Cortez would be raising Calzaghe’s hand in victory.

Now that he is the Ring light heavyweight champion of the world, do not expect Joe Calzaghe to move back down to super middleweight to defend his 168-pound title.  Expect him to seek greener pasture$ against another past-prime superstar, Roy Jones, Jr.  Is this the best possible match at 175 pounds? It is absolutely not. But it will likely take place this fall, and I will watch.  What’s next for Bernard "the Executioner" Hopkins? The future Hall of Famer can retire and focus on his Golden Boy East promotional responsibilities, or he can chase a few more paydays against the likes of Glen Johnson, Chad Dawson or Antonio Tarver.  One thing he surely won’t be doing, is boasting that he will never lose to a white boy.

Make no mistake about it, I am not as comfortable as I would like to be with this fight prediction. Picking against Bernard Hopkins (48-4-, 32 KOs) is like picking against Tom Brady in the fourth quarter - you just feel he’s going to find a way to win. However, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let my feelings take over my insight. My mind tells me that Joe Calzaghe (44-0, 32 KOs) gets a "check" in just about every category that matters, except one. The one area that Hopkins has an advantage in is his unrivaled ring smarts - and it is his only hope in this fight. What’s between Bernard’s ears can potentially negate all of Calzaghe’s strengths in speed, natural size, and footwork. Anyone that remembers Hopkins’s dominant wins over the favored Felix Trinidad (TKO 12) and Antonio Tarver (UD 12) need not be reminded.  Trust me, I remember.

I’ve had a busy week so far, so I will keep it short. In his first visit to the United States for a fight, Joe Calzaghe will experience some butterflies early on.  But I expect him to find his rhythm by about round five.  From this point on, he will display too much hand speed, combination punching, and fancy footwork for the 43-year old light heavyweight champion, at this advanced stage of his career. In the pre-fight hype Bernard Hopkins ranted that he would never let a white boy beat him. Let’s just say I hope that ring announcer Larry Merchant raises the issue in the post-fight interview.

JOE CALZAGHE BY UNANIMOUS DECION OVER BERNARD HOPKINS

Two days ago I mentioned that Miguel Cotto (31-0, 25 KO’s) would beat the crap out of Alfonso Gomez (18-3, 8 KO’s) in my Tarver vs Woods; Dawson vs Johnson post.  The reason is simple.  Cotto is the superior fighter.  Need I say more? I really don’t need to, but I will share my sterling insight nonetheless. 

At 27 years of age, Miguel Cotto is in his physical prime and clicking on all cylinders.  He’s coming off the biggest win of his career, an exciting decision over "Sugar" Shane Mosley last November.  Prior to that, Cotto handed "Super" Zab Judah the worst beating of his career.  And two fights before the Judah victory, he forced Carlos Quintana to quit in five rounds.  The Quintana win is especially impressive when you consider that Quintana went on to easily defeat the highly-touted Paul "The Punisher" Williams earlier this year.  What do these victories mean for Cotto’s fight with Gomez? They show that he is not only the better fighter, but has fought and defeated far better competition. 

Alfonso Gomez is coming off of two nice victories.  However, a win over a past-prime Ben Tackie (UD 10) and a blood-letting of shop-worn Arturo Gatti (TKO 7) are not enough to pass the "Cotto test."  Look for the faster and stronger Cotto to win by stoppage within eight rounds.

I have said it once before, and I will say it again: rarely will you see the loser (of the first fight) win the rematch, especially if that fighter was defeated convincingly.  When you get dominated (L TKO 5) the way that Kermit "The Killer" Cintron (29-1, 27 KO’s) was three years ago against Antonio Margarito (35-5, 25 KO’s), I just have a hard time seeing him turn the tables this time around.  Sorry, I am not overly impressed by Cintron’s blowout win over Walter Matthysse, nor his recent KO victory over Jesse Feliciano.  Cintron has registered five knockouts and has had Hall of Fame trainer Emmanuel Steward in his corner since the destruction at the hands of Margarito in 2005.  However, history will pretty much repeat itself in the rematch on Saturday. 

My prediction: Margarito TKO 8 Kermit Cintron

When was the last time you saw four of the best fighters in the same division fight on the same card? Don’t worry, I’ll wait (for your response). While I wait, I’ll let you in on a little secret. It rarely happens. This Saturday, Showtime Championship Boxing blesses us with a rare championship double-header, pitting Antonio Tarver 26-4 (19 KO’s) against Clinton Woods 41-3-1 (24 KO’s) for the IBF light heavyweight scrap, while Glencoffe Johnson 47-11-2 (37 KO’s) battles "Bad" Chad Dawson 25-0 (17 KO’s) for his WBC light heavyweight title. Ultimately, I hope the winners of each fight face off later in the year to further clarify the light heavyweight title picture. However, I’ll first focus on this weekend’s fights, who’s going to win them, and why.

In the first bout, the multi-talented Dawson faces the "Road Warrior" Glen Johnson. For my money, this fight will steal the show. It’s the classic crossroads fight between a younger, up-and-coming fighter (Dawson) and an older, battle-tested veteran (Johnson). It’s obvious that Dawson is the more gifted fighter, with his uncanny blend of speed, power and footwork. However, Johnson has faced future Hall of Famers in Roy Jones, Jr. (KO victory) and Bernard Hopkins (KO defeat).  The list doesn’t stop there.  He has also fought Clinton Woods three times, Antonio Tarver two times and Sven Ottke once. 

Johnson has a clear advantage over Dawson in terms of competition and overall ring experience.  Will this be enough to overcome Dawson’s advantages in height (four inches), reach (two inches), and speed?  The answer is no - as Dawson’s youth and talent will carry the day.  Don’t expect a blowout though; expect a close decision victory for "Bad" Chad.  Although Johnson has 11 losses, he has only been dominated once (by Bernard Hopkins).

In the so-called main event, Antonio "Magic Man" Tarver faces off against perennial contender Clinton Woods. Both men have faced similar top competition, including Roy Jones, Jr. and Glencoffe Johnson. However, Tarver has fared better against these two opponents. His record against them is 3-2 while Woods has gone 1-2-1.  Both men stand 6′2" tall, but it’s Tarver who is the superior boxer and jabber. Because of these advantages, I look for Tarver to win a workmanlike unanimous decision over the game, but less-talented Woods. Don’t expect a thriller though.

Thursday, I will let you know why Miguel Cotto will beat the crap out of Alfonso Gomez. Stay tuned.

Floyd "Money" Mayweather’s "upset" victory over "The Big Show" at "Wrestle Mania XXIV" this past Sunday night in Orlando’s Citrus Bowl was not the first - and won’t be the last fore of an elite boxer into professional wrestling. Is the 5′8", 145 pound Mayweather knocking out the 7-foot, 441 pound preposterous? Sure, it is. But that’s besides the point. No matter how unrealistic the matchup was, when boxers and professional wrestlers meet, fans of both sports can’t help but pay attention. The World Wrestling Entertainment record crowd of 74,635 that watched Money Mayweather knock out The Big Show, with brass knuckles in hand, proves my point.

Before Mayweather and the Big Show exchanged pleasantries, many boxers have made professional wrestling appearances in order to make some extra cash and expand their fan base. The most notables fighters to do so were "The Greatest," Muhammad Ali and, none other, than Mike Tyson.

Muhammad Ali vs. Antonio Inoki
In 1976, the greatest boxer in the world battled the greatest wrestler in Japan. No one expected that Inoki would be on his back for the entire match kicking at Ali’s legs. This disappointing "show" was seen via closed circuit by millions of viewers. Personally, it was sad to see the greatest heavyweight of all time participate in such a farce, but I am sure he collected a pretty penny.

WrestleMania XIV, March 29, 1998
Held at the Fleet Center in Boston, MA, the main event featured special enforcer Mike Tyson outside the ring for the Shawn Michaels vs Steve Austin battle. This was Mike Tyson’s first PPV event since biting Evander Holyfield’s ears a few months earlier. The match ended with Steve Austin winning. In an unusual turn of events, Mike Tyson took off his D-X (Michael’s crew) shirt to reveal a Steve Austin shirt. When confronted by Michaels, Tyson knocked out him out with a right hand. As we later find out, this was only the beginning in a series of surreal events that Tyson would be involved in over the next several years. At the time, it surely was one of the funniest.

As fate would have it, even the biggest event in boxing/wrestling history (Mayweather-Big Show) was marred by injuries suffered by some fans after equipment and material from the fireworks show fell on them. I pray that all of the fans have a speedy recovery, but this bizarre ending should come as no surprise to boxing fans. Controversy follows boxing like bees follow honey, even when its participants are involved in another "sport."